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Amid the immense confusion following the US strikes on Venezuela, the seizure of President Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “manage” the country and “take back the oil”, a single fact remains evident – they set a deeply alarming precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but the recent overnight operation marked its premier large-scale offensive on South American land. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” Mr Trump declared.

The move to assault another independent nation and capture its head of state – only a few days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – possesses far-reaching consequences. This ought to concern everyone.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have stolen the last election. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has indicated that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and rejected conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other elements of the leadership-stricken government are far more intransigent.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who came to office pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is converting it into a lawless actor.

He believes that the US’s might enables it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: consider the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He claims that the oil resources of Venezuela means this latest episode “won’t cost us a penny”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came absent any United Nations mandate or congressional approval; Democrats were not even informed and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to destroy them.

Set aside the signal this transmits to global powers like Russia and China, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will surely embolden further adventurism.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

No one buys the pretext that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is propelled by the promise of energy wealth as well as personal bravado, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the appetite for triumphalism as his standing with the American public falters.

World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode highlights the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could still pressure him to redirect his gaze inward – but escalating insurance prices, financial discontent and distracting files increase his appetite for distraction.

We are not yet 12 months into his time in office. The international community may regret it if they stay silent now, with the question of which nation is next looming.