Starmer's Backers Launch 'Halt Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback

Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to parliament. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an impending by-election.

Serious Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Process

Multiple members on the party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The party apparatus is said to have sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he caused outrage within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of sources also expressed fears about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the body could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to mount a significant campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.

The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.