A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
