From Grudging Respect to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Ousting of Maduro.

A shock assault against the capital city in the dead of night, culminating in the capture of the country's president. By the next morning, the foreign force announces its intention to govern for an indefinite period.

That is precisely how Russia's president envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal by many, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

In public, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of global norms and a dangerous precedent. But behind the rhetoric, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even envy – at the efficiency of a coup that Moscow itself once planned, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The mission was executed with precision,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was meant to unfold: fast, decisive and conclusive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general expected to be engaged in combat for this long.”

Such commentary have fueled a mood of introspection among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly conflict.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how brazen the American action appeared to be. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.

Allies in Decline

For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – hoping to helping to shape a new axis able to challenge Washington.

Yet despite Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other key allies lose influence or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the constraints of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with no option but to express outrage. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

Analysts point to a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with the US administration on that front far outweighs the fate of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems.

Those include S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more nakedly power-based world order – one where might, rather than rules, shapes outcomes.

“Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than international law.”